US Open – week 1 – Friday

TradeShark — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 13:59:31 +0000

16:00 – Stakhovsky v Harrison

Rankings are 36 and 220. They have never played.

Harrison beat Ljubicic in the first round although Ljubicic is starting to feel the years and slowed down noticeably after the first set. However Harrison played and served well and had the home crowd behind him.

Today will be very different. Stakhovsky is in fantastic form and has matured a great deal over recent months. Once known only for his big serve he is now showing he has amazing touch around the court and he just never gives up. He won the Pilot Pen Tennis event last month beating De Bakker, Baghdatis and Robredo on the way and came back from a set down to Istomin in the final.

18 year old Harrison described the win over Ljubicic as the best win of his life. He will be on a massive high and if he can get off to a good start he could trouble Stakhovsky in the opening set. I really don’t see him winning over 5 sets though.

Both men have been serving well with first serve percentages of 62% and 63% and they have been holding serve 80% and 86% of the time over the last 3 months.

Stakhovsky can start slow and in his last 8 matches he has lost the first set in 6 of them. Bear that in mind but both should be fine to back on serve.

Laying Stakhovsky would be an alternative way to trade but I have a gut feeling that he will not lose the first set this time. He will be very keen to get off to a good start to silence the crowd a little.

23:00 – Simon v Kohlschreiber

Rankings are 42 and 31. Head to heads are 2-1 to Simon.

Simon is starting to play with some of the form he showed a year ago though he still has a long way to go.

Kohlschreiber has better stats than Simon on serve over the last 3 months and holds serve 85% to Simon’s 80%. He saves a massive 69% of break poonts against him compared to an also impressive 58% from Simon.

In their first round matches it was probably Simon who looked slightly better but neither man faced tough opposition. Kohlschreiber really should have beaten Kamke in straight sets but lost the second.

Watch the opening couple of games but both men, in form, should be fine to back on serve. I doubt this will be over in straight sets but I am going for Simon to reach the next round.

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US Open – week 1 – Thursday

TradeShark — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 13:39:53 +0000

16:00 – Montanes v Ball

Rankings are 23 and 145. They haven’t played before.

Montanes is more of a clay court player but can adapt well to faster courts and usually does ok in the Major tournamants.

Ball has a big, consistent serve and he holds serve 87% of the time but the majority of his matches were on the weaker Challenger tour. 2 months ago he retired in a third set due to the heat ( in Newport). The heat at the US Open has been more intense than it was there.

Montanes is a typical clay courter. Supremely fit and able to run all day. His greater experience will allow him to move Ball around if he suspects the Aussie is suffering.

Montanes was taken to 5 sets in the first round. That was his first match on hard courts since the clay season ended and he went 2 sets down. He came back strong and took the final set 6-0. That is the match he needed to adjust to the faster courts.

Back Montanes on serve. If Ball is serving well in the opening set you could also back him on serve but the longer the match goes on the more dominant I expect montanes to be.

Update: Montanes won 6-4, 6-3, 6-1

20:00 – Melzer v Berankis

Rankings are 15 and 124. They haven’t played before.

Melzer hasn’t been in the best form over recent weeks but this is a Major and he ups his game for these.

Berankis plays on the Challenger tour and does ok until he comes up against a half decent opponent.

If I include Challenger events in the stats over the last 3 months Melzer hits 62% of first serves in and holds serve 85% of the time. Berankis serves 51% of first serves in and holds 87% of the time but bear in mind that 13 of the 16 matches he has played were Challenger matches and often up against much inferior quality players.

Melzer saves 70% of break points against him to Berankis’ 64%.

Berankis really shouldn’t trouble Melzer here. Back Melzer on serve or from the start.

Update: In the end I didn’t trade this match as there were several problems with the feed for the scoreboards.

What on earth was Melzer doing? He won 6-4, 6-7, 6-3, 1-6, 7-5.

US Open – week 1 – Wednesday

TradeShark — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 13:15:16 +0000

16:00 – Harrison v Ljubicic

Rankings are 220 and 17. Head to heads are 1-0 to Ljubicic.

Harrison had to come through the qualifying rounds so he has some games under his belt. Ljubicic lost in the first round 2 weeks ago to Nalbandian and hasn’t played since. He may be a little short of match practice.

On paper this should be an easy win for Ljubicic but Harrison has a big serve and if Ljubicic is a little slow to get started he may be in trouble in the opening set.

Harrison serves 64% of first serves in and holds serve 83% of the time. Ljubicic hits 58% of first serves and holds 67% of the time.

Ljubicic converts 44% of break points chances to Harrison’s 30%.

Ljubicic needs to work out Harrison’s serve quickly ( their only previous meeting was in March and Ljubicic won in straight sets). If he is unable to break and his own service game is a bit rusty we could see the American take the first set.

Watch the opening couple of games. If Ljubicic looks sharp then back him on serve. If he looks to be struggling then just back Harrison on serve.

An in form Ljubicic should take it in 3 or 4 sets.

Update: Ljubicic looked more tired as the match went on. Harrison was inspired and had the support of the crowd.

Harrison won 6-3, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4.

21:00 – Sela v Malisse

Rankings are 95 and 50. Head to heads are 1-0 to Sela. ( last month on a hard court, 3 sets)

Sela’s preparation for this tournament was to play a Challenger event in Vancouver. He won the title.

Malisse reached the semi final of the Legg Mason Tennis Classic losing to Baghdatis in straight sets. In that tournament he beat Berdych, Isner and Benneteau.

Sela doesn’t do so well in the Grand Slams and has lost 7 in a row in best of 5 set matches.

First serve percentages are 57% and 58% and they hold serve 79% and 82% of the time. Malisse saves 65% of break points against him.

Whilst Sela’s win on the Challenger Tour will no doubt give him lots of confidence he was up against lesser players. Malisse has been up against the big boys and has come out of those matches with a lot of credit.

I expect a close first set and Malisse to take the match in 3 or 4 sets.

Back Malisse on serve.

Update: Very poor from Malisse and Sela served extremely well.

Sela won 7-6, 7-5, 6-2.