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Monterrey Open – Semi Finals

Posted by TradeShark on 6 March 2010, 12:02 pm

22:00 – Cibulkova v Hantuchova

 

Rankings are 29 an 24. Head to heads are 2-0 to Hantuchova.

 

The market has Hantuchova as slight favourite. I can see this being close and possibly a 3 setter.

 

Cibulkova often starts slowly so I would expect her to lose the first set but as its the WTA I don’t recommend backing Hantuchova from the start.

 

This is another game that looks good for the 15-40 or scalping methods.

 

Update: I missed the fist set and joined it half way through the second. Hantuchova lost the first set but was getting on top in the second. The 3rd was very one sided.

 

She won 4-6, 6-3, 6-0.

 

 

 

Midnight – Sevastova v Pavlyuchenkova (rescheduled for 17:00 Sunday due to rain)

 

Rankings are 72 and 28. Head to heads are 1-0 to Pavlyuchenkova

 

Pavlyuchenkova is a strong favourite here but you dont get to a semi final unless you’re in good form.

 

Tempting to back her from the start but better to use the scalping method and watch for 15-40’s. If Pavlyuchenkova gets a lead she should be able to hold on to it but be wary of staying in a trade too long. You can’t rely on women to do anything ;-)

 

Update: Pavlyuchenko got off to a fast start and was 3-0 up. However this was a match full of breaks of serve and it wasn’t as one sided as it had looked.

 

Pavlyuchenko took the first set but then really struggled on her own serve. This allowed Sevastova to level the match at one set all.

 

In the decider it was all Pavlyuchenko and she took the match 6-2, 2-6, 6-1.

 




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Davis Cup – Friday

Posted by TradeShark on 5 March 2010, 7:51 am

12:00 – Ruchus v Berdych – (on clay)

 

Rankings are 59 and 15. Head to heads are 2-3 and 1-2 on clay.

 

Berdych has been in good form this season with 2 quarter final appearances.

 

Rochus has only notched up 2 wins in 2010 although he has been unlucky to draw a top player most weeks.

 

Berdych is favourite for this one but Rochus has the ability to keep it close. Use scalping and watch for 15-40 opportunities.

 

Berdych wins 88% of service games so although this is on clay if he gets a lead we can be fairly sure of him serving out the set.

 

 

15:00 – Malisse v Stepanek  – (on clay)

 

Rankings are 87 and 17. Head to heads are 3-3 with Malisse winning their last match ( 1 of only 2 wins he has had this year).

 

Again, this could be a close match with the clay slowing everything down. Expect some long rallies. Scalping and 15-40 should work well.

 

Stepanek ought to be able to hold on to the set if he gets the lead. He wins 87% of his service games. He also has a decent touch around the net so his drop shot will be well used.




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Monterrey Open – Thur

Posted by TradeShark on 4 March 2010, 7:51 am

Not a top class field this week. The highest ranking player in the 9pm and 11pm games is 24.

 

Towards the end of the week the current form of the players will be more even so the on-paper fave may not be the actual favourite.

 

The 3 games all look ideal for 15-40 and scalping, so that’s the recommendation.

 

The games are :

Sevastova v Benesova – (6-1, 6-2)

Szavay v Groenfeld – (6-1, 6-7, 6-1)

Errani v Cibulkova – (6-3, 4-6, 1-6)

 

Update: The only match  traded was the Szavay one. She was easily the best player in the first set and made a mockery of the fact that Groenfeld had been backed down to 1.72 prematch.

 

In the second set Szavay broke in the very first game and it looked like it was all over. Then the WTA bug kicked in and she allowed her opponent to get back into it. Groenfeld pulled back to a tie break which she won.

 

In the decider it was back to normal with Szavay taking it easily. The match shows that especially with players outside the top 20 you are advised to stay in a trade for as short a time as possible.

 

I traded the first 2 sets and called it a night.

 




Strategies, trading demo videos and advice at www.tradesharktennis.com

Also, join the Trading Forum and chatroom! Traders helping traders during the matches! Click Here


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